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The best and easiest start to test wether astrology "works" is to look into the many predictive techniques. For that you need an exact (within 10min) birth time. There is a technique called zodiacal releasing, that is in most cases quite intriguing.

There is a plethora of good theories, why we are able to meaningfully correlate rhythms in nature with events of our lifes, as individuals and societies.

My favorite way to look at it is fairly simple. It is not so much about cause and effect as it is about analogy or synchronicity. I think it is very possible that biological systems on a micro level are influenced by the same harmonic patterns/laws that also govern the movement of celestial bodies. It is not a question of cause and effect but rather of universal principles of our reality that constrain what is happening randomly. The argument that there is not yet physical paradigm that allows for celestial bodies to influence our consciousness is a straw man. Nobody would claim a clock makes time pass. Rather the clock is a means of observing time, i.e. pattern matching. Astrology is a complex, transcultural, ancient and very lindy language for describing qualitative aspects of time, i.e. how seasonality and natural cycles influence us as human beings.

ELI5:A winter child is imprinted with very different first impressions than a summer child.

I will not put more time into this now, as I am not certain yet of your level of true interest and earnestness. But a very good start would be for you to publicly post your birth day, place and time and see if someone can intrigue you enough to reserach further.

It am still doubting wether you truly grasp the complexity of real astrology as a craft that involves not only the position of the sun in the tropical zodiac but at least 9 other factors that together form a complex multidimensional chart of a person's life.

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There is a great essay making a very strong point on how the words like "synchronicity" or "universal principles" don't explain anything. Here it is, I highly recommend it: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpRSCH7ALLcb6ucWM/say-not-complexity.

Astrology in its current form is not as ancient as it might seem. What is the oldest written record mentioning anything besides the 12 signs of Zodiac? Anything like natal charts?

Yeah, I agree with the winter/summer children argument. But it's very crude and doesn't need any advanced astrology, quadrants, whatnot.

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Ofcourse it is crude. That was the point. A simplified metaphor. You wanted an ELI5 for an immensely complex topic. It goes on from there.

Eli5: What makes the weak and strong nuclear forces do their magic. How do electromagnetic waves propagate. What mechanism produces wave/particle dualism

You have revealed some assumptions about the history of astrology. We have archeological evidence for timed horoscopes going back into ancient Egypt, using very similar methods. People are using the same system since Hellenistic times. India hd it’s own unbroken tradition. Astrology is incredibly diverse in its history.

Instead of synchronicity let’s just say synchrony, I do not need to read any essays on this topic thank you.

Universal laws is another word for natural laws.

The quintessence lies in this.

There are natural laws similar to those we can describe with mathematics that structure reality on different magnitudes (solar system macrocosm, social system, individual microcosm) this is something no physicist would deny. Somehow (we do not know as of yet) there are harmonic self-organizing principles that constrain the randomness of reality and biological systems have evolved in accordance with these constraints. Astrology is in its true form very similar to a Herman Hakens complexity/synergetics, a systems view that of time that identifies meaningful patterns in human life. There is actually a pretty amazing way to construct many of the principles of astrology bottom of from the phase relationships of our planet and it’s solar system.

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There's no large-scale statistical evidence for all these things. What you're saying is very broad, there no details compared to the physics questions you're asking. I expect to hear something at the level of the Newtonian mechanics (easily explainable in exact terms) but related to astrology, but there's seemingly no such information.

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My time is limited. I have offered you a possible way to test a hypothesis. Look at timing techniques and zodiacal releasing. Since you already said you won’t read any book or watch videos and want eli5 Tier explanations, I am confused as to how anyone would want to interact further. Either you want to know or you don’t. But I feel it’s entirely unnecessary to shit on a whole field of human sense making unless you mainly do it to create some social media attention. In that case kudos.

Not that I care for simplified statistical testing in the case of astrology but there is a book out there by people who followed up on the work of Michel Gaucquelin. (Mars effect)

Regarding large scale statistical models and human behavior, this is an ongoing problem, see economics, psychology, history, social science.

I am trying to make you understand, astrology is complex in the scientific sense of the word. A single birthday chart has at least 12 x 12 x 10 interconnected factors at play. I am convinced Maschine learning will bring some interesting perspectives into the field.

Anyways I cannot give you a course in astrology.

But maybe clarify your aim. Do you just want to shit on astrology? Or are you interested in learning something new on its own terms.

Since I have come into contact with astrology 18 years ago I have worked to falsify it and alas I have been convinced there is something very tangible to it. Confirmation bias? Maybe. But it is a much better tool for looking at complex human reality than any statistical model. I know you probably won’t care, which is ok. Astrology will live on its lindy existence long after we are gone, I am certain of that.

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Nov 27, 2022Liked by Phil Filippak

I don't follow or know much about astrology, and my strong assumption is that if you designed an experiment that the median rationalist would approve, astrology wouldn't pass. However, my model is that "Astrology doesn't work" is malformed — it's like saying "Christianity doesn't work", where 'work' has a loaded meaning.

You may think that 'work' means: "Astrology is unable to predict character traits or the future in a manner better than chance." I'm sure many people would disagree (and thus believe that it can), but my guess is that more people would prefer a definition of 'work' closer to: "Astrology presents a framework to understand ourselves and our place in this universe."

This definition makes fewer scientific claims, and is closer to what many people who affirmatively believe "Christianity works" would be comfortable aligning with.

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Yes, I probably should have made that distinction more visible. It's there in the first paragraph but only in the form of having "no qualms" while I actually even weakly promote the usage of astrology, Tarot, and other mantic or spiritual systems as tools of introspection.

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I can’t tell you about the music of the gods so it’s better if he plays it for you. Would you say to your child do you work?? Dad can I help you fix your car? Yes you can help me but you are not able...just like the story of Cain and Abel.

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I mean no disrespect, I had to tell myself the same. Wrong questions, wrong perspective, there’s no debunking metaphysics where language and light and music reside, there are only bad scientists and bad musicians, but they don’t get to ruin anything ultimately. Start with Vediak unfortunately on YT sometime like Bharata Khanda and in 5 moves or so the whole conversation changes. Don’t miss his vid on Omicron too. I thank you and anyone for having these important pursuits 🧡

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deletedNov 27, 2022Liked by Phil Filippak
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Literally millions of people still don't accept the theory of evolution. So I will let myself avoid taking that as an argument. Otherwise, I will welcome any decent explanation of something metaphysical happening, thus transferring that in the realm of physical. Before that, I don't think that counting millions of anecdotes as evidence may lead us in the right direction.

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